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Rickshaw
Runworks 2005 5M Racer
San Francisco, CA
Joined: 26 Nov 2004
Posts: 1157
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converting half-marathon to marathon times Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 10:57 am |
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I've read various rules of thumb on how to convert half-marathon times to equivalent marathon times. The most common one seems to be to double your half-marathon time, and add 10 minutes. That might be a bit too conservative, though. Examining the equivalency tables from Daniels Running Formula, it looks like double plus 7 or 8 minutes is about what he expects. On the other hand, I've seen running calculators that suggest something more like double plus 12 to 15 minutes.
For those that have run a half-marathon and a marathon within a fairly short period, how did your times compare? Obviously there are a lot of other factors to consider, such as the difficulty of the courses involved, weather, etc. But for a reasonable large sample of people, looking at half marathons and marathons done within a couple of months of each other, I think you'd be able to extract a meaningful average.
The only data point I can provide is from 2003, when I ran a half marathon in 1:37:59, followed three weeks later by a 3:23:02 marathon. That works out to double + 7:04. Anyone else have a result to share, or a general theory on this?
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Bricks
Runworks 2005 5M Racer
Chicago
Joined: 09 Dec 2004
Posts: 222
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Re: converting half-marathon to marathon times Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:49 pm |
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Hmm... Is someone trying to figure out if his recent strong half marathon time can predict an impending BQ? (Personally, I think you're right where you want to be)
For discussion's sake I ran my second ever half marathon August 1, 2004 in 1:43:15 and the subsequent full October 10 in 3:37:13. So double + 10:43 if my math serves, but I was all over the place in my first year of training and racing so I suspect I'm not the best gauge.
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ginger
Cambridge, MA
Joined: 08 Dec 2004
Posts: 46
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Re: converting half-marathon to marathon times Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 4:57 pm |
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Good question -- I'd like to know how to predict as well. In general the Jack Daniels table has been accurate for predicting race times for me, within a margin of error of about 1 "vdot".
For some more numbers, I ran a 2:59 full in early December at CIM, then a 1:23 half nine weeks later at the kaiser SF half. So that would be double + 13 mins. But maybe I'm in better running shape now than I was then...
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Rickshaw
Runworks 2005 5M Racer
San Francisco, CA
Joined: 26 Nov 2004
Posts: 1157
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Re: converting half-marathon to marathon times Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 6:00 pm |
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These numbers are all in the same general range, so that's good. I suspect double + 7 is about right assuming the right training, but double + 10 or 15 may not be uncommon for anyone who hits the wall, or has a poorly paced marathon. Or maybe in Ginger's case, gets in a lot of good training between the full and the half.
If you look at the VDOT tables, you'll see they are all roughly double + 7.5.
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